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Okay so it looks like what is happening here is that I need to use waitForTransform. The TransformListener is sluggish to aggregate data in my case, maybe the frames I'm interesting in aren't being published all that frequently. That's not the subtle point here though.

Notice that I'm trying to transform the point with the stamp ros::Time::now(). It appears to be the case that when I get the timestamp from ros::Time is BEFORE the listener can get anything into its buffer. Meaning that this will report and extrapolation error into the past! So to combat this I needed to wait for the transform to be published, ie, the buffer fills a little (which is normal), but also update the timestamp carefully so that it can eventually succeed.